There is a problem with seasonal charts for Electronic markets. If the number of years selected is greater than the number of years in the data series then an error message is displayed. Since the Electronic markets only go back a few years for many of the markets it's best to use non-electronic markets for seasonal analysis.
At some point I'll go back and link the Electronic markets to the pit data so this won't be a problem.
Shay Campbell
Timing Charts, LLC
The trend is your friend until the end, when it bends.
Shay, why is there a normal commodity and an "(elec)" commodity?
arent they the same?
[/quote]
Yes and no.
Yes, they are the same market for delivery purposes and contract specs. They are completely interchangeable, i.e., you could buy pit corn and sell electronic corn to offset the trade.
No, they have different symbols and are executed differently. You have to specify on your trading platform what symbol you are trading which determines if the trade is done in the pit or electronically.
As you can see from most of the pit traded contracts the volume is all but gone. I still make them available because the pit symbols have all the history. I'm sure some day soon the pits will be closed down and the electronic markets will inherit the pit symbols. At that time we can merge all the data together and forget we ever had two symbols for one market. For now, that's how they trade so we have to track both symbols.
Shay Campbell
Timing Charts, LLC
The trend is your friend until the end, when it bends.
Just know a) this site is BAR NONE THE BEST COT SITE you will find and b) the COT Data is AWESOME, just needs to have each indiv. trader pick the data apart and create their own trading strategy.
And LEARN.
I don't know if Shay trades on his own nor is it any of our business, frankly, as this is a DATA-DRIVEN SITE. Enjoy the free site is what I say, and email him with questions like that.
For example, Larry Williams one year made 1000% and other traders using the same COT DATA probably have 'blown up.'
Main thing is this site is awesome and great for people to do RESEARCH on this weekly report and the many Commodity/FX indicators as well.
PS I've been one of those traders who lost A LOT of money by trading COT Data wrong, and now I feel like I have LEARNED SO MUCH. Been trading for 9 years. We all learn by doing so asking if the charts and indicators' potential is opening up a can of worms.
It's like plastic surgery...Same tools; depends on who's using them!
I think it was Neils Bohr who said "An expert is someone who has made an ENORMOUS number of mistakes in a very narrow field."
Mike, after reading your article, I have no way around it, but to ask you where did you screw up the most and ... how exactly whould we separate, distinguish and analyse properly the COT reports, in order to avoid losses.
i understand your 9 year length of experience is a school you have to pay for, but ... for us, the pioneers of trading - how do we survive?
That is "the" question, yes. I screwed up by getting EMOTIONAL. Almost everyone does. I actually did not really start trading until 2006, but was a Commodity broker since 2001 and my boss at the time picked a lot of the trades. But the key is not getting EMOTIONAL. What I would recommend is CREATING A MACHINE, like finding a market that responds well to the COT Report, create RULES OF TRADING, eg getting out if you lose more than x percent on any one trade, never putting more than 5% or 15% on any one trade, etc. not getting Long until you see 2 daily closes above the 25-day Exponential Moving Average, only getting Long if the Commercials are the LONGEST they've been in 5+ years, that sort of thing.
One thing to really look CLOSELY AT is that Williams says to get LONG if the Commercials are at record LONGS and to get SHORT if they are at record SHORTS. I do not think it is as simple as that with any market. I think that is a good gauge, but there are other patterns and formations that show up on this site that are very VISIBLE; hence, you ought to study this site to do a "back-test"...That's what a site like this is here for...And do not get emotional as in "Do not get married to a trade." If one of your rules is broken, then get OUT.
Also, you don't necessarily HAVE to trade that much. If you're waiting for COT Report confirmations, you might be waiting a while, and only get into trades you think will move a lot. Decide how often you will trade; your rules might have you only trading 10 times/year, or even less. Be aware of this and be PATIENT and know that Rome was not built in a day.
Practice by paper-trading at first. Get really good on paper, then use real money after AT LEAST 1 year paper-trading. Or hire a professional who knows his/her stuff.
I will be getting my e-book ready for public consumption within the next few weeks that I wrote based upon the COT Report so I can email that to you if interested.
Hope that helps! Could write so much more, but it's a forum so just wanted to share with you the gist.
Yes, please email me your guys' email addresses. I will send you the complimentary ebook.
I am also starting to submit more posts and trading opinions and I use this ROBUST site here and its myriad indicators, with the primary one being the COT Report, but the other indicators being of invaluable help as well.
LOTS OF RISK OBVIOUSLY IN THE MARKETS.
Some indicators I use: Average Directional Index, Aroon Up/Down, MACD, Williams Indicator, RSI, etc. Depends on each market, etc. but email me at mwhoeft@gmail.com to get the ebook if interested.
And continue to patronize this site because it really is terrific.
Hi Mike, just sent you a mail with my own address for the e-book. Thanks in advance. I do agree with you this site is fantastic, even to a COT student like me.
As for indicators, I recently read an article on the Money Flow Index that I found quite interesting. For the coming weeks I will be learning how to use it besides the other infos on this site, especially the COT.
There is a problem with seasonal charts for Electronic markets. If the number of years selected is greater than the number of years in the data series then an error message is displayed. Since the Electronic markets only go back a few years for many of the markets it's best to use non-electronic markets for seasonal analysis.
At some point I'll go back and link the Electronic markets to the pit data so this won't be a problem.
Shay Campbell
Timing Charts, LLC
The trend is your friend until the end, when it bends.
Shay, why is there a normal commodity and an "(elec)" commodity?
arent they the same?
[quote=whitneywhiteman]
Shay, why is there a normal commodity and an "(elec)" commodity?
arent they the same?
[/quote]
Yes and no.
Yes, they are the same market for delivery purposes and contract specs. They are completely interchangeable, i.e., you could buy pit corn and sell electronic corn to offset the trade.
No, they have different symbols and are executed differently. You have to specify on your trading platform what symbol you are trading which determines if the trade is done in the pit or electronically.
As you can see from most of the pit traded contracts the volume is all but gone. I still make them available because the pit symbols have all the history. I'm sure some day soon the pits will be closed down and the electronic markets will inherit the pit symbols. At that time we can merge all the data together and forget we ever had two symbols for one market. For now, that's how they trade so we have to track both symbols.
Shay Campbell
Timing Charts, LLC
The trend is your friend until the end, when it bends.
Shay ... outta curiosity...
are you trading on your own guiding yourself by these charts with larry williams indicators?
and if so ... how succsesful is it? ((and i dont need numbers, just an average understandint of the charts and indcators potential )
im fairly new to this... i'd apreciate some imput :)
We've gone off topic - I moved this topic to - Larry Williams COT book
Shay Campbell
Timing Charts, LLC
The trend is your friend until the end, when it bends.
Whitney,
Just know a) this site is BAR NONE THE BEST COT SITE you will find and b) the COT Data is AWESOME, just needs to have each indiv. trader pick the data apart and create their own trading strategy.
And LEARN.
I don't know if Shay trades on his own nor is it any of our business, frankly, as this is a DATA-DRIVEN SITE. Enjoy the free site is what I say, and email him with questions like that.
For example, Larry Williams one year made 1000% and other traders using the same COT DATA probably have 'blown up.'
Main thing is this site is awesome and great for people to do RESEARCH on this weekly report and the many Commodity/FX indicators as well.
Best,
Mike H.
Mike Hoeft
mwhoeft@gmail.com
PS I've been one of those traders who lost A LOT of money by trading COT Data wrong, and now I feel like I have LEARNED SO MUCH. Been trading for 9 years. We all learn by doing so asking if the charts and indicators' potential is opening up a can of worms.
It's like plastic surgery...Same tools; depends on who's using them!
I think it was Neils Bohr who said "An expert is someone who has made an ENORMOUS number of mistakes in a very narrow field."
Mike H
Mike Hoeft
mwhoeft@gmail.com
Mike, after reading your article, I have no way around it, but to ask you where did you screw up the most and ... how exactly whould we separate, distinguish and analyse properly the COT reports, in order to avoid losses.
i understand your 9 year length of experience is a school you have to pay for, but ... for us, the pioneers of trading - how do we survive?
That is "the" question, yes. I screwed up by getting EMOTIONAL. Almost everyone does. I actually did not really start trading until 2006, but was a Commodity broker since 2001 and my boss at the time picked a lot of the trades. But the key is not getting EMOTIONAL. What I would recommend is CREATING A MACHINE, like finding a market that responds well to the COT Report, create RULES OF TRADING, eg getting out if you lose more than x percent on any one trade, never putting more than 5% or 15% on any one trade, etc. not getting Long until you see 2 daily closes above the 25-day Exponential Moving Average, only getting Long if the Commercials are the LONGEST they've been in 5+ years, that sort of thing.
One thing to really look CLOSELY AT is that Williams says to get LONG if the Commercials are at record LONGS and to get SHORT if they are at record SHORTS. I do not think it is as simple as that with any market. I think that is a good gauge, but there are other patterns and formations that show up on this site that are very VISIBLE; hence, you ought to study this site to do a "back-test"...That's what a site like this is here for...And do not get emotional as in "Do not get married to a trade." If one of your rules is broken, then get OUT.
Also, you don't necessarily HAVE to trade that much. If you're waiting for COT Report confirmations, you might be waiting a while, and only get into trades you think will move a lot. Decide how often you will trade; your rules might have you only trading 10 times/year, or even less. Be aware of this and be PATIENT and know that Rome was not built in a day.
Practice by paper-trading at first. Get really good on paper, then use real money after AT LEAST 1 year paper-trading. Or hire a professional who knows his/her stuff.
I will be getting my e-book ready for public consumption within the next few weeks that I wrote based upon the COT Report so I can email that to you if interested.
Hope that helps! Could write so much more, but it's a forum so just wanted to share with you the gist.
Mike H
Mike Hoeft
mwhoeft@gmail.com
Yeah Mike... Im sure your book would be of interest... and not only to me.
You're absolutley right - easier said then done... Trading is no candy.
But if u're willing to share anything usefull, im sure ppl would be greatfull.
Mike,
I am a newbie here and just about to learn COT, would you mine share your writing about COT Report??
Thank you before ^^
Sha
Hi Dada, is the book out?
Regards
Yiehom
Yes, please email me your guys' email addresses. I will send you the complimentary ebook.
I am also starting to submit more posts and trading opinions and I use this ROBUST site here and its myriad indicators, with the primary one being the COT Report, but the other indicators being of invaluable help as well.
LOTS OF RISK OBVIOUSLY IN THE MARKETS.
Some indicators I use: Average Directional Index, Aroon Up/Down, MACD, Williams Indicator, RSI, etc. Depends on each market, etc. but email me at mwhoeft@gmail.com to get the ebook if interested.
And continue to patronize this site because it really is terrific.
MH
Mike Hoeft
mwhoeft@gmail.com
Hi Mike, just sent you a mail with my own address for the e-book. Thanks in advance. I do agree with you this site is fantastic, even to a COT student like me.
As for indicators, I recently read an article on the Money Flow Index that I found quite interesting. For the coming weeks I will be learning how to use it besides the other infos on this site, especially the COT.
Have a good day
Yiehom
Hi Mike, nice to meet you.
This site is very fantastic. I want learn COT Report to forex trading application. Please sent me your e-book. Thanks.
Regards,
Andry
solitairefx@gmail.com